40C plus still lingers despite drop in temperature

Thailand expects to pass the period of extremely hot weather of the dry season by the middle of May but the temperature is still relatively higher than usual due to El Nino and climate change, just like other countries in Asia, according to noted climate experts

After enduring extremely hot weather since late February, when the temperature started to climb up and surpass 40C, especially in April, Thailand has started to feel a drop in temperature partly due to developing thunderstorms. But as noted by climate experts, the general weather this week is still considered hot with the maximum temperature that can still touch a degree beyond 40C. 

Assoc.Prof.Dr. Seree Supratid, the country’s noted climate expert and advisor to Futuretales LAB, MQDC, has projected that some regions including the Central Region and the Northeast could still experience temperatures over 40C with 50-80% chance and this will slightly drop after May 6. It would not until the second week of May through June that Thailand will pass the period of extremely hot weather, he said.

The Meteorological Department has projected similarly. Almost all of the regions, from the East to the West and the North to the eastern South, still experienced the maximum temperatures beyond 40C (40-43.8C), as of yesterday. Bangkok’s temperature was recorded at 40.5C.

Since late February, from February 21 onwards, Thailand has been declared by the department as entering the dry season period and the weather this year is extremely hot due to the influence of El Nino and climate change.

The average temperature was first forecast at 35 to 38C and the maximum temperature was projected between 43 to 44.5C, which was close to the previous record-high of 44.6C, measured in Mae Hong Son’s Mueang district on April 28, 2016, and Tak’s Mueang district on April 15 last year.

The department issued a warning to the public, saying people could feel even hotter due to relative humidity and this year the Heat Index, which factors in such humidity, is also reported in parallel to help people assess the weather conditions and their health as the temperatures on the health index could be dangerous in some days and heat-related sickness can strike more easily. 

At least 38 people have died due to heatstroke this year and up to 131 people have died due to the sickness over the past five years, or between 2019-2023, or around 26.1 per year. The trend of heat-related patients has increased especially among workers and senior people, according to the Department of Health.

The concern over the heat-related sickness prompted concerned agencies including the Departments of Health, Disease Control, and Labour Protection and Welfare to issue warnings to the public and ask for more cooperation from employers to ensure protection for workers from the extremely hot weather and uncomfortable working conditions.

Just last week, the country still experienced record-breaking heat, as more than three dozen districts across the country’s 77 provinces recorded their highest temperatures ever for April. Some records surpassed previous highs set as far back as 1958, according to the Meteorological Department.

In Bangkok itself, the heat index had reached a “very dangerous” level above 52C (42-51.9C=dangerous), creating extreme discomfort and potential health risks. At the same time, the northern province of Lampang recorded a high of 44.2C, nearing the country’s all-time highest temperature of 44.6C.

The coming transition

Extreme weather is still at play in the country. Dr. Seree, the author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has projected that El Nino will transition into La Nina, starting from the middle of this year and the country will enter the period of La Nina around the end of this year. However, it’s still unpredictable whether the shift of the phenomenon could bring moisture and rainfall as expected. Based on the current projections of his climate models, the rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season in May is not good. The situation would improve in the middle of the season, around July onwards, he said.

Although the maximum temperature in Thailand would unlikely reach 50C, but the climate models have suggested that there are a possibility that the country could experience the maximum temperature up to 49.1C in the next 60 years if countries fail to achieve the limit of 1.5C, and 46C based on the present pledges on emission cuts of GHG (NDCs). If they have achieved the Paris Agreement, Thailand could still see the maximum temperature at 44.75C, according to Dr. Seree. 

At the same time, the number of days that the country would experience the maximum temperature beyond 40C is likely to increase, from nine at present to 75 days.

The unregular phenomenon that would occur here if the temperature rose beyond the limit of 1.5C is a heatwave, Dr. Seree noted, saying Thailand would experience 20-40 days of heatwaves and the numbers would increase to 50-80 days if the temperature rose beyond 2C.

“The possible impacts would be irreversible. The question is; are we ready for them?” asked Dr. Seree.

According to FAO, El Nino’s lingering effects are leaving a significant mark on agriculture across Southeast Asia. The organisation said since February 2024, drier conditions have emerged in various spots of the region, posing a threat to rice and wheat harvests and potentially delaying the onset of monsoon rains expected in June and July.

The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a rapid shift in Southeast Asia’s climate, it noted. Regular monitoring through drought forecasting systems has shown the countries in SE Asia, first the Philippines, particularly Isabela Province, experiencing concerning levels as early as February 2024, and subsequently in March 2024, specific provinces in Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR also reported similar conditions.

The potential impact of ongoing dry conditions is expected to persist for the next 4-5 months, the organisation further noted, adding the El Nino aftermath underscores the unpredictability of such events and the urgent need to enhance early warning and anticipatory action systems. 

Heat in Asia: WMO

As extreme rainfall and floods have claimed many lives and caused economic and agricultural losses in East Africa and parts of the Arabian peninsular, intense heat has gripped large parts of Asia, disrupting daily life and posing a serious health threat, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said.

The waning El Nino event, alongside the Indian Ocean Dipole, is playing a role, notably in the floods in East Africa and drought in Southern Africa and high temperatures in Southeast Asia, the organisation noted. The excess energy trapped in the atmosphere and ocean by greenhouse gases is also having a major influence, especially on extreme heat, according to WMO experts. 

“Climate change is exacerbating the frequency and severity of such events, profoundly impacting societies, economies, and, most importantly, human lives and the environment that we live in,” WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said last week.

Ms. Ko Barrett highlighted how the extreme weather so far in 2024 in Asia continues the trends as reported in the WMO State of the Climate in Asia 2023 report. Asia remains the world’s most disaster-hit region from weather, climate, and water-related hazards in 2023. 

“Floods and storms caused the highest number of reported casualties and economic losses, whilst the impact of heatwaves became more severe. Extreme heat is increasingly becoming the big silent killer,” said Ms. Ko Barrett.

“Heat-related mortality is widely under-reported and so the true scale of premature deaths and economic costs, in terms of reduced labour productivity, agricultural losses, and stress on the power grid, is not accurately reflected in the statistics.”

The IPCC latest Assessment Report found that “in Asia, heat extremes have increased while cold extremes have decreased, and these trends will continue over the coming decades (high confidence).” Last year, a World Weather Attribution study found that the “extreme humid heat in South Asia in April 2023 was largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities.”

April is typically a hotter month in the South Asia and Southeast Asia regions, but El Nino and climate change are driving temperatures to precariously high levels, says WMO Regional Director for Asia and the Southwest Pacific Ben Churchill. 

In Thailand’s capital Bangkok, the city’s environmental department issued a warning of extremely dangerous “feels like” heat levels (temperature and humidity). It urged people to avoid heavy labour or exercise outdoors and recommended vulnerable members of the community to stay inside and keep hydrated. North of the capital, in Lampang province, the temperature reached 44.2C, which is just short of the record 44.6C registered last year. 

In neighbouring Myanmar, the temperature has soared to 45.9C during the week and the very hot conditions are expected to continue for several days.

India is successfully rolling out integrated heat-health forecasts action plans and Beat the Heat campaigns with practical advice and information. But the vulnerable, including outdoor workers and those living in densely populated informal housing settlements, are exposed to heat waves. Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand are among the other countries impacted, with schools closed and disruption to economic and agricultural activities, according to the WMO.