Carbon Brief has debriefed what happened in the room at COP29’s first week_from a heated agenda fight to the comeback of Donald Trump and what it means to the ongoing climate negotiations
The UN’s COP29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan got off to a shaky start on Monday. The host nation attempted to repeat the UAE’s COP28 day-one “win” by pushing through a deal on Article 6.4, which governs international carbon trading, in a move described by one party as a “horrible precedent”. But, instead of adulation, the COP29 presidency landed in a lengthy “agenda fight”, resolved in classic COP fashion with a footnote. This fight reflected the key battlelines at the summit: the new climate finance goal; and how, where—or even whether—to carry forward COP28’s deal on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
Three nations—UAE, Brazil and the UK—have come forward with new UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), ahead of the February 2025 deadline. Climate Home News reported that the UAE’s plan was criticised for failing to include measures to restrain oil and gas production, which is projected to rise by a third by 2035. Meanwhile, the Brazilian climate NGO Climate Observatory said the emissions cut planned by the nation falls far short of its fair share towards limiting global warming to 1.5C. The UK’s emissions aim has broadly been welcomed by climate experts.
With a new climate-finance goal seen as the main COP29 objective, UN secretary general António Guterres told leaders to “pay up, or humanity will pay the price”, Reuters reported. Early disputes over the goal produced a draft text with “pretty much every option…on the table”, showing “polarised views” between countries, explained the Hindustan Times. Meanwhile, multilateral development banks announced that their climate-finance contributions will reach US $120bn annually by 2030, according to Azernews.
Climate justice against “Gift of God”
The president of Azerbaijan, the country hosting COP29, caused a media firestorm by describing oil and gas a “gift of god” during his address at the opening of the conference’s World Leaders Climate Action summit. BBC News reported that Ilham Aliyev criticised “western fake news” about the country’s emissions and said nations “should not be blamed” for exploiting their fossil fuels. On Friday, senior figures including former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon and former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres wrote in a letter that the COP process is “no longer fit for purpose”.
Aliyev’s address at the summit was followed by interventions from 80 heads of state on Tuesday and Wednesday. Carbon Brief was in the room for the summit’s first day and summarised what each leader chose to focus on. Developing countries put on a united front calling for “climate justice” to be at the heart of climate-finance discussions, while European leaders implored all countries to release new plans to keep the 1.5C temperature goal in sight.
Trump is back, and what’s next?
After Donald Trump’s US election win, debate is swirling over which party might take over as a “leader” at the talks. The UK government told the Observer it intended to step up to “save COP29”. At its first press conference, the European Union said it will lead from the front at the negotiations_despite France’s environment minister deciding to skip the summit following a diplomatic spat with Azerbaijan. At the sidelines, a senior Chinese official told delegates that “China is willing to take a more active role in global climate governance”, according to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
Climate finance and fossil fuel fights
Carbon Brief has also outlined what to expect from the two biggest topics being negotiated at COP29
Nations gathered at COP29 must agree on a global target to channel finance into climate action, known as the “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG). There are major rifts between parties over virtually every aspect of the NCQG. As a result, negotiations got off to a shaky start.
Broadly, developing countries want developed countries to provide or “mobilise” at least US $1tn a year to them, largely as grants. Developed country parties, such as the US and the EU, want a goal that does not rely entirely on them, including lots of private investment and input from the wealthier developing countries. Parties have diverging views on when the goal should be delivered, but dates broadly range between 2025 and 2035.
At the first opportunity, developing countries unanimously rejected the nine-page text meant as the starting point for negotiations and requested a rewrite. Ali Mohamed, chair of the African Group of Negotiators, told journalists that the “biggest obstacle” was language that shifted responsibility away from developed countries’ obligation to provide funds to developing countries.
Having incorporated the views of all countries, the co-chairs facilitating the talks released a new version that had ballooned to 34 pages and was widely viewed as unworkable. There were more delays as parties only allowed the chairs to slightly streamline this text, producing one that was just a page shorter.
By this point, talks were entering the second half of the week and delegates expressed concerns that so little progress had been made. EU lead negotiator Jacob Werksman told a press briefing that they were “very worried”, lamenting that “more than a year of preparation” had gone into the initial text that had been rejected.
Negotiators are engaging in informal talks to hash out some of the less divisive elements, such as how easy it is for countries to access funds. Next week will see government ministers take over, with the goal of steering them through more controversial territories into a final conclusion.
Fossil fuel fights
Apart from climate finance, the other key battleground at COP29 is around how—or even whether—to carry forward the outcome of last year’s “global stocktake”, in which all parties agreed to help with “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
This question was a major part of the “agenda fight” at the start of the summit. Disagreement centred on which part of the agenda would include the “UAE dialogue”, which was created to discuss “implementing the global stocktake outcomes”.
The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDCs), including China and India, want this dialogue to focus exclusively on finance, as do the Arab Group and the African Group. Many others want a broader focus, taking in all stocktake outcomes, including fossil-fuel transition. Supporters, including the EU, US, UK, small island states (AOSIS) and Latin American countries (AILAC), are pushing for text on ambitious climate action in several venues.
Ultimately, fossil-fuel transition could end up in a so-called “cover text” at COP29. This has become a space to include more political language that does not have a “home” elsewhere. On Thursday evening, the Azerbaijan presidency began talks with parties on where to put text on climate ambition – including fossil-fuel transition – but it has yet to give more details on its plans.
Source: Carbon Brief
